Data point to a widening gap between declining demand, elevated prices and rising levels of unsold inventory
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Sales of new homes in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) reached an all-time low in December, capping off a year in which annual sales were at their lowest level in 45 years, according to new data from the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).
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BILD’s December report, released this week, said a total of 5,314 new units were sold in 2025. While the annual sales total itself is historically low, the data also point to a widening gap between declining demand, elevated prices and rising levels of unsold inventory.
The inventory of unsold new homes in the GTA stood at 26 months at the end of December. In many housing cycles, higher inventory levels are accompanied by price adjustments that support increased market activity. In this case, benchmark prices have shown limited movement despite the decline in sales.
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The benchmark price for new condominium apartments remained above $1 million in December, while benchmark prices for new single-family homes declined nine per cent over the past year but remained elevated relative to longer-term averages.
Altus Group Ltd. research manager Edward Jegg described December’s sales as an “all-time low,” noting that annual volumes have not fallen to this level in the 45 years new-home sales data have been collected for the GTA. He also said several factors are likely to continue weighing on buyer activity, including geopolitical uncertainty, elevated prices and the Bank of Canada’s indication that the interest-rate cutting cycle has ended.
The condominium market had the steepest sales decline. A total of 87 new condo units were sold in December, down 91 per cent from the 10-year average. Condos have historically accounted for a significant share of entry-level new-home purchases. Decreased activity in that segment can limit overall market turnover by reducing the number of buyers able to transition into other housing types.
Single-family home sales were comparatively higher in December but remained nearly 60 per cent below the 10-year average. The data suggest that affordability constraints are affecting multiple segments of the new-home market rather than being isolated to one category.
The slowdown also has broader economic implications. BILD chief operating officer Justin Sherwood said new-home sales are down “well into the double digits” across Ontario, placing an estimated 100,000 jobs at risk. He described new-home construction as having “effectively stalled,” underscoring its importance as a source of employment and investment activity.
Looking ahead, industry members have raised concerns about the potential impact of a weakened new-home market on future housing supply. Projects delayed or cancelled due to weak pre-sales may reduce the number of housing completions in coming years, even as population growth continues to add demand.
• Email: shcampbell@postmedia.com
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